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ACRE Payments more likely for 2010

Kent Olson, Extension Economist
If they did not sign up in 2009, farmers have until June 1, 2010, to sign their farms up for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program, the optional safety net for farmers provided in the 2008 Farm Bill. And farmers should pay close attention to this decision for 2010.

Current research results from University of Minnesota Extension tilt towards the decision to sign up for the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program in 2010. The decision in 2009 was a toss up as to whether ACRE or counter-cyclical payments (CCP) was a better bet.

My example calculations point toward ACRE payments for corn, soybean and wheat in Minnesota, but this is not certain. There are many interrelated moving parts in this decision. To predict the probability of ACRE payments in the midst of uncertainty, I estimated the potential values and distributions of yields and prices for 2010 and combined them with the ACRE program's rules in a statistical model. The results estimate potential state ACRE payment rates in Minnesota near $50 per acre for corn, $30 for soybeans, and $27 for wheat, with positive payment rates estimated to occur in more than 50 percent of the estimations. Actual payments to individual farms would depend on whether each farm had a loss under ACRE rules, the second trigger in the ACRE program. However, these are just estimates. The possibility of no payments also exists.

Farmers who did not sign up for ACRE in 2009 need to evaluate their specific conditions and payment limits and decide which program is the best option for them in 2010. (Those who signed up for ACRE in 2009 cannot revoke this decision.)

Further information for Minnesota farmers and an Excel worksheet for analyzing the choice between ACRE and CC payments in 2010 are available in the Farm Bill section at Minnesota Extension's Ag Business Management web page. Also, further information on the ACRE and other FSA programs are available at local or State FSA offices or on FSA's Web site at:

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